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Orkla vs Tiller — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Orkla
Orkla
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tiller
Tiller
4/27/20243. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 4Orkla Sparebank Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Orkla37%
×Draw22%
Tiller41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orkla
1.70
Tiller
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Orkla
1.31
Tiller
1.23

allows per match

Orkla
2.38
Tiller
2.08

finishing

Orkla+0.00on par
Tiller+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orkla ↓

Tiller →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Orkla or draw
59%
Orkla or Tiller
78%
Draw or Tiller
63%

Winning margin

Orkla wins by 2+
19%
Tiller wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Orkla 1+ goals
82%
Orkla 2+ goals
51%
Orkla 3+ goals
24%
Tiller 1+ goals
83%
Tiller 2+ goals
54%
Tiller 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Orkla (draw refunded)
47%
Tiller (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orkla at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Tiller away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orkla attack 1.31 + Tiller defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.70

Tiller attack 1.23 + Orkla defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Orkla scores more
37%
level
22%
Tiller scores more
41%

Tiller at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tiller will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orkla vs Tiller

Orkla beat Tiller 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Orkla Sparebank Stadion in Fannrem.