Tiller 2–2 Lillestrøm II: Result & Stats

Tiller

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lillestrøm II

9/28/2024

3. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 23TOBB Arena Sør

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tiller52%

×Draw18%

Lillestrøm II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TillerExpected goals in this matchLillestrøm II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

2.04

Tiller

2.73

Lillestrøm II

2.04

Tiller creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.31

creates per match

2.31

1.77

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Tiller

2.31

Lillestrøm II

2.31

allows per match

Tiller

1.77

Lillestrøm II

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tiller+0.00on par

Lillestrøm II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiller ↓

Lillestrøm II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Tiller or draw

71%

Tiller or Lillestrøm II

82%

Draw or Lillestrøm II

48%

Winning margin

Tiller wins by 2+

33%

Lillestrøm II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tiller 1+ goals

93%

Tiller 2+ goals

75%

Tiller 3+ goals

50%

Lillestrøm II 1+ goals

87%

Lillestrøm II 2+ goals

60%

Lillestrøm II 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Tiller (draw refunded)

64%

Lillestrøm II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiller at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Lillestrøm II away — creates 2.31, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiller attack 2.31 + Lillestrøm II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.73

Lillestrøm II attack 2.31 + Tiller defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tiller scores more

52%

level

18%

Lillestrøm II scores more

29%

Tiller at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tiller will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff