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TIL 2020 W vs Arna-Bjørnar W — 1. Division Women 2022

TIL 2020 W
TIL 2020 W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arna-Bjørnar W
Arna-Bjørnar W
E. Iversen 66'
I. Birkelund 43'
5/11/20251. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 7Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TIL 2020 W40%
×Draw23%
Arna-Bjørnar W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TIL 2020 W
1.65
Arna-Bjørnar W
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

creates per match

TIL 2020 W
1.90
Arna-Bjørnar W
2.00

allows per match

TIL 2020 W
1.10
Arna-Bjørnar W
1.41

finishing

TIL 2020 W+0.00on par
Arna-Bjørnar W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TIL 2020 W ↓

Arna-Bjørnar W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

TIL 2020 W or draw
64%
TIL 2020 W or Arna-Bjørnar W
77%
Draw or Arna-Bjørnar W
60%

Winning margin

TIL 2020 W wins by 2+
20%
Arna-Bjørnar W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

TIL 2020 W 1+ goals
81%
TIL 2020 W 2+ goals
49%
TIL 2020 W 3+ goals
23%
Arna-Bjørnar W 1+ goals
79%
Arna-Bjørnar W 2+ goals
46%
Arna-Bjørnar W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

TIL 2020 W (draw refunded)
53%
Arna-Bjørnar W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TIL 2020 W at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

Arna-Bjørnar W away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TIL 2020 W attack 1.90 + Arna-Bjørnar W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.65

Arna-Bjørnar W attack 2.00 + TIL 2020 W defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

TIL 2020 W scores more
40%
level
23%
Arna-Bjørnar W scores more
36%

TIL 2020 W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "TIL 2020 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
I. Birkelund
63'
N. Hegg← N. Hegg
65'
A. Evensen
66'
E. Iversen
67'
A. Henschien← A. Henschien
67'
K. Doskeland← K. Doskeland
72'
S. Martinussen← S. Martinussen
78'
S. Lekven
83'
S. Mortensen← S. Mortensen
83'
E. Machlik← E. Machlik
84'
A. Skala← A. Skala
85'
S. Muhic← S. Muhic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TIL 2020 W vs Arna-Bjørnar W

TIL 2020 W beat Arna-Bjørnar W 2-0 in 1. Division Women on May 11, 2025.

Goals: I. Birkelund (43'), E. Iversen (66').

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromsø.