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TIL 2020 vs Klepp W — 1. Division Women 2022

TIL 2020
TIL 2020
FT
1 – 1
Klepp W
Klepp W
4/3/20221. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 3Alfheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

TIL 202060%
×Draw20%
Klepp W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TIL 2020
2.23
Klepp W
1.21

TIL 2020 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 28 away

creates per match

TIL 2020
1.90
Klepp W
1.32

allows per match

TIL 2020
1.10
Klepp W
2.57

finishing

TIL 2020+0.00on par
Klepp W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TIL 2020 ↓

Klepp W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

TIL 2020 or draw
80%
TIL 2020 or Klepp W
80%
Draw or Klepp W
40%

Winning margin

TIL 2020 wins by 2+
38%
Klepp W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

TIL 2020 1+ goals
89%
TIL 2020 2+ goals
65%
TIL 2020 3+ goals
38%
Klepp W 1+ goals
70%
Klepp W 2+ goals
34%
Klepp W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

TIL 2020 (draw refunded)
75%
Klepp W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TIL 2020 at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

Klepp W away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TIL 2020 attack 1.90 + Klepp W defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.23

Klepp W attack 1.32 + TIL 2020 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

TIL 2020 scores more
60%
level
20%
Klepp W scores more
20%

TIL 2020 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "TIL 2020 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division Women: TIL 2020 1–1 Klepp W

TIL 2020 and Klepp W drew 1-1 in 1. Division Women on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Alfheim Stadion in Tromsø.