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Tikveš vs Vardar Skopje — First League 2019

Tikveš
Tikveš
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
9/22/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Tikveš41%
×Draw28%
Vardar Skopje31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tikveš
1.28
Vardar Skopje
1.06

Tikveš creates 21% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 78 away

creates per match

Tikveš
1.44
Vardar Skopje
1.14

allows per match

Tikveš
0.99
Vardar Skopje
1.13

finishing

Tikveš+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tikveš ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tikveš or draw
69%
Tikveš or Vardar Skopje
72%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
59%

Winning margin

Tikveš wins by 2+
19%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tikveš 1+ goals
72%
Tikveš 2+ goals
37%
Tikveš 3+ goals
14%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
65%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
29%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tikveš (draw refunded)
57%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tikveš at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.99 · 82 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tikveš attack 1.44 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.28

Vardar Skopje attack 1.14 + Tikveš defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tikveš scores more
41%
level
28%
Vardar Skopje scores more
31%

Tikveš at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tikveš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tikveš vs Vardar Skopje

Vardar Skopje beat Tikveš 1-0 in First League on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Kavadarci.