Tikveš 1–0 Shkupi 1927: Result & Stats

Tikveš

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shkupi 1927

9/17/2025

First League · Round 6Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Tikveš49%

×Draw26%

Shkupi 192726%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TikvešExpected goals in this matchShkupi 1927

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.02

Tikveš

1.51

Shkupi 1927

1.02

Tikveš creates 48% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 106 away

1.44

creates per match

1.04

0.99

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Tikveš

1.44

Shkupi 1927

1.04

allows per match

Tikveš

0.99

Shkupi 1927

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tikveš+0.00on par

Shkupi 1927+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tikveš ↓

Shkupi 1927 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tikveš or draw

74%

Tikveš or Shkupi 1927

74%

Draw or Shkupi 1927

51%

Winning margin

Tikveš wins by 2+

25%

Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tikveš 1+ goals

78%

Tikveš 2+ goals

44%

Tikveš 3+ goals

19%

Shkupi 1927 1+ goals

64%

Shkupi 1927 2+ goals

27%

Shkupi 1927 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tikveš (draw refunded)

65%

Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tikveš at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.99 · 82 matches

Shkupi 1927 away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tikveš attack 1.44 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.51

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.04 + Tikveš defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tikveš scores more

49%

level

26%

Shkupi 1927 scores more

26%

Tikveš at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tikveš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff