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Tikveš vs Plačkovica — Second League 2019

Tikveš
Tikveš
FT
5 – 1
Plačkovica
Plačkovica
11/8/2020Second LeagueSecond League · East - 10Igralište AMS vo Rosoman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tikveš69%
×Draw18%
Plačkovica13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tikveš
2.34
Plačkovica
0.93

Tikveš creates 152% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Tikveš
2.64
Plačkovica
0.95

allows per match

Tikveš
0.91
Plačkovica
2.05

finishing

Tikveš+0.00on par
Plačkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tikveš ↓

Plačkovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tikveš or draw
87%
Tikveš or Plačkovica
82%
Draw or Plačkovica
31%

Winning margin

Tikveš wins by 2+
45%
Plačkovica wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tikveš 1+ goals
90%
Tikveš 2+ goals
67%
Tikveš 3+ goals
41%
Plačkovica 1+ goals
61%
Plačkovica 2+ goals
24%
Plačkovica 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tikveš (draw refunded)
84%
Plačkovica (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tikveš at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

Plačkovica away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tikveš attack 2.64 + Plačkovica defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.34

Plačkovica attack 0.95 + Tikveš defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Tikveš scores more
69%
level
18%
Plačkovica scores more
13%

Tikveš at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Tikveš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tikveš vs Plačkovica

Tikveš beat Plačkovica 5-1 in Second League on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Igralište AMS vo Rosoman in Rosoman.