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Tikveš vs Besa Dobërdoll — First League 2019

Tikveš
Tikveš
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
11/9/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tikveš54%
×Draw25%
Besa Dobërdoll21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tikveš
1.60
Besa Dobërdoll
0.91

Tikveš creates 76% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tikveš
1.44
Besa Dobërdoll
0.82

allows per match

Tikveš
0.99
Besa Dobërdoll
1.76

finishing

Tikveš+0.00on par
Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tikveš ↓

Besa Dobërdoll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tikveš or draw
79%
Tikveš or Besa Dobërdoll
75%
Draw or Besa Dobërdoll
46%

Winning margin

Tikveš wins by 2+
28%
Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tikveš 1+ goals
80%
Tikveš 2+ goals
47%
Tikveš 3+ goals
22%
Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
60%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
23%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tikveš (draw refunded)
71%
Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tikveš at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.99 · 82 matches

Besa Dobërdoll away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tikveš attack 1.44 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.60

Besa Dobërdoll attack 0.82 + Tikveš defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tikveš scores more
54%
level
25%
Besa Dobërdoll scores more
21%

Tikveš at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tikveš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tikveš vs Besa Dobërdoll

Tikveš and Besa Dobërdoll drew 0-0 in First League on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Kavadarci.