Tikveš 0–5 Baltika: Result & Stats

Tikveš

0 – 5

Baltika

7/7/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tikveš5%

×Draw11%

Baltika84%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TikvešExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.56

2.89

Tikveš

0.56

Baltika

2.89

Baltika creates 416% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

2.78

3.00

allows per match

0.11

creates per match

Tikveš

1.00

Baltika

2.78

allows per match

Tikveš

3.00

Baltika

0.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tikveš+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tikveš ↓

Baltika →

0–03%

0–19%

0–214%

0–313%

0–49%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2–01%

2–11%

2–22%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Tikveš or draw

16%

Tikveš or Baltika

89%

Draw or Baltika

95%

Winning margin

Tikveš wins by 2+

Baltika wins by 2+

65%

Team goals

Tikveš 1+ goals

43%

Tikveš 2+ goals

11%

Tikveš 3+ goals

Baltika 1+ goals

94%

Baltika 2+ goals

78%

Baltika 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

Tikveš (draw refunded)

Baltika (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tikveš at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Baltika away — creates 2.78, concedes 0.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tikveš attack 1.00 + Baltika defence 0.11 → ÷2 → 0.56

Baltika attack 2.78 + Tikveš defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 84%?"

Tikveš scores more

level

11%

Baltika scores more

84%

Baltika at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Tikveš

Baltika

Manager: Oliver Bogatinov

Manager: Andrey Talalaev