Tihad Casablanca 2–1 Olympique Khouribga

Tihad Casablanca

FT

2 – 1

Olympique Khouribga

4/18/2021

Botola 2 · Round 18Stade Raja Roche Noire

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Tihad Casablanca40%

×Draw28%

Olympique Khouribga32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tihad CasablancaExpected goals in this matchOlympique Khouribga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.08

Tihad Casablanca

1.25

Olympique Khouribga

1.08

Tihad Casablanca creates 16% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 45 away

1.16

creates per match

1.00

1.16

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Tihad Casablanca

1.16

Olympique Khouribga

1.00

allows per match

Tihad Casablanca

1.16

Olympique Khouribga

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tihad Casablanca+0.00on par

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tihad Casablanca ↓

Olympique Khouribga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tihad Casablanca or draw

68%

Tihad Casablanca or Olympique Khouribga

72%

Draw or Olympique Khouribga

60%

Winning margin

Tihad Casablanca wins by 2+

18%

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tihad Casablanca 1+ goals

71%

Tihad Casablanca 2+ goals

36%

Tihad Casablanca 3+ goals

13%

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals

66%

Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals

29%

Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tihad Casablanca (draw refunded)

56%

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tihad Casablanca at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tihad Casablanca attack 1.16 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.00 + Tihad Casablanca defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tihad Casablanca scores more

40%

level

28%

Olympique Khouribga scores more

32%

Tihad Casablanca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tihad Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff