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Tihad Casablanca vs Moghreb Tetouan — Botola 2 2025

Tihad Casablanca
Tihad Casablanca
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
2/25/2022Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 21Stade Larbi Zaouli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tihad Casablanca32%
×Draw29%
Moghreb Tetouan38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tihad Casablanca
1.03
Moghreb Tetouan
1.15

Moghreb Tetouan creates 12% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 30 away

creates per match

Tihad Casablanca
1.16
Moghreb Tetouan
1.13

allows per match

Tihad Casablanca
1.16
Moghreb Tetouan
0.90

finishing

Tihad Casablanca+0.00on par
Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tihad Casablanca ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tihad Casablanca or draw
62%
Tihad Casablanca or Moghreb Tetouan
71%
Draw or Moghreb Tetouan
68%

Winning margin

Tihad Casablanca wins by 2+
12%
Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tihad Casablanca 1+ goals
64%
Tihad Casablanca 2+ goals
28%
Tihad Casablanca 3+ goals
9%
Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
68%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
32%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tihad Casablanca (draw refunded)
46%
Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tihad Casablanca at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tihad Casablanca attack 1.16 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.13 + Tihad Casablanca defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tihad Casablanca scores more
32%
level
29%
Moghreb Tetouan scores more
38%

Moghreb Tetouan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Moghreb Tetouan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Tihad Casablanca 0–0 Moghreb Tetouan

Tihad Casablanca and Moghreb Tetouan drew 0-0 in Botola 2 on February 25, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Larbi Zaouli in Casablanca.