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Tihad Casablanca vs Difaa EL Jadida — Cup 2020

Tihad Casablanca
Tihad Casablanca
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadidaadvanced
2/9/2023CupCup · Round of 32Stade Larbi Zaouli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tihad Casablanca18%
×Draw27%
Difaa EL Jadida56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tihad Casablanca
0.70
Difaa EL Jadida
1.47

Difaa EL Jadida creates 110% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tihad Casablanca
0.00
Difaa EL Jadida
1.60

allows per match

Tihad Casablanca
1.33
Difaa EL Jadida
1.40

finishing

Tihad Casablanca+0.00on par
Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tihad Casablanca ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–117%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tihad Casablanca or draw
44%
Tihad Casablanca or Difaa EL Jadida
73%
Draw or Difaa EL Jadida
82%

Winning margin

Tihad Casablanca wins by 2+
5%
Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Tihad Casablanca 1+ goals
50%
Tihad Casablanca 2+ goals
16%
Tihad Casablanca 3+ goals
3%
Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
77%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
43%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Tihad Casablanca (draw refunded)
24%
Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tihad Casablanca at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tihad Casablanca attack 0.00 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.60 + Tihad Casablanca defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tihad Casablanca scores more
18%
level
27%
Difaa EL Jadida scores more
56%

Difaa EL Jadida at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Difaa EL Jadida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Tihad Casablanca 0–1 Difaa EL Jadida

Difaa EL Jadida beat Tihad Casablanca 1-0 in Cup on February 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Larbi Zaouli in Casablanca.