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Tigres UANL W vs Portland Thorns W — CONCACAF W Champions Cup 2024

Tigres UANL W
Tigres UANL Wadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Portland Thorns W
Portland Thorns W
5/22/2025CONCACAF W Champions CupCONCACAF W Champions Cup · Semi-finalsEstadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tigres UANL W41%
×Draw23%
Portland Thorns W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL W
1.75
Portland Thorns W
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL W
2.25
Portland Thorns W
2.75

allows per match

Tigres UANL W
0.50
Portland Thorns W
1.25

finishing

Tigres UANL W+0.00on par
Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL W ↓

Portland Thorns W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Tigres UANL W or draw
64%
Tigres UANL W or Portland Thorns W
77%
Draw or Portland Thorns W
59%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL W wins by 2+
21%
Portland Thorns W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tigres UANL W 1+ goals
83%
Tigres UANL W 2+ goals
52%
Tigres UANL W 3+ goals
25%
Portland Thorns W 1+ goals
80%
Portland Thorns W 2+ goals
48%
Portland Thorns W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL W (draw refunded)
53%
Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Portland Thorns W away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL W attack 2.25 + Portland Thorns W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Portland Thorns W attack 2.75 + Tigres UANL W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tigres UANL W scores more
41%
level
23%
Portland Thorns W scores more
36%

Tigres UANL W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tigres UANL W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tigres UANL W vs Portland Thorns W

Tigres UANL W beat Portland Thorns W 2-0 in CONCACAF W Champions Cup on May 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario in San Nicolás de los Garza.