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Tigres UANL W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W — CONCACAF W Champions Cup 2024

Tigres UANL W
Tigres UANL W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
NJ/NY Gotham FC Wadvanced
5/25/2025CONCACAF W Champions CupCONCACAF W Champions Cup · FinalEstadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tigres UANL W26%
×Draw20%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W53%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL W
1.55
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
2.25

NJ/NY Gotham FC W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL W
2.25
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
4.00

allows per match

Tigres UANL W
0.50
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
0.86

finishing

Tigres UANL W+0.00on par
NJ/NY Gotham FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL W ↓

NJ/NY Gotham FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Tigres UANL W or draw
47%
Tigres UANL W or NJ/NY Gotham FC W
80%
Draw or NJ/NY Gotham FC W
74%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL W wins by 2+
12%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Tigres UANL W 1+ goals
79%
Tigres UANL W 2+ goals
46%
Tigres UANL W 3+ goals
20%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1+ goals
89%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2+ goals
65%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL W (draw refunded)
33%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC W away — creates 4.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL W attack 2.25 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.55

NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 4.00 + Tigres UANL W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tigres UANL W scores more
26%
level
20%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W scores more
53%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "NJ/NY Gotham FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONCACAF W Champions Cup: Tigres UANL W 0–1 NJ/NY Gotham FC W

NJ/NY Gotham FC W beat Tigres UANL W 1-0 in CONCACAF W Champions Cup on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario in San Nicolás de los Garza.