Tigres UANL W 3–1 Alajuelense W: Result & Stats

Tigres UANL W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Alajuelense W

10/4/2024

CONCACAF W Champions Cup · Group Stage - 4Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tigres UANL W87%

×Draw10%

Alajuelense W3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tigres UANL WExpected goals in this matchAlajuelense W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

0.38

Tigres UANL W

2.88

Alajuelense W

0.38

Tigres UANL W creates 658% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.25

creates per match

0.25

0.50

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Tigres UANL W

2.25

Alajuelense W

0.25

allows per match

Tigres UANL W

0.50

Alajuelense W

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tigres UANL W+0.00on par

Alajuelense W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL W ↓

Alajuelense W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–016%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Tigres UANL W or draw

97%

Tigres UANL W or Alajuelense W

90%

Draw or Alajuelense W

13%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL W wins by 2+

69%

Alajuelense W wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Tigres UANL W 1+ goals

94%

Tigres UANL W 2+ goals

78%

Tigres UANL W 3+ goals

54%

Alajuelense W 1+ goals

32%

Alajuelense W 2+ goals

6%

Alajuelense W 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL W (draw refunded)

97%

Alajuelense W (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Alajuelense W away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL W attack 2.25 + Alajuelense W defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.88

Alajuelense W attack 0.25 + Tigres UANL W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Tigres UANL W scores more

87%

level

10%

Alajuelense W scores more

3%

Tigres UANL W at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Tigres UANL W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff