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Tigres UANL vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
A. Gignac 90', 44' (pen)
R. Galindo 24' (OG)
N. Ibáñez 12'
J. Dinenno 65'
G. del Prete 16'
2/12/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 6Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Tigres UANL52%
×Draw25%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
1.61
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.00

Tigres UANL creates 61% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
2.08
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.21

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.79
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.14

finishing

Tigres UANL+1.12scores more
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.43scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
76%
Tigres UANL or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
75%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
48%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
27%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
80%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
48%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
22%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
63%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
26%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
69%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.79 · 5 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 2.08 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.61

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.21 + Tigres UANL defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
52%
level
25%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
24%

Tigres UANL at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
G. del PreteU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · F
8.7

Match Events

9'
J. Galindo
12'
N. Ibáñez↳ L. Quiñones
16'
G. del Prete
24'
R. GalindoOwn goal
42'
J. Sanchez
44'
A. GignacPenalty
45+4'
L. Quinones
45+6'
G. Del Prete
46'
S. Trigos← J. Sánchez
46'
C. Huerta← A. Álvarez
46'
P. Bennevendo← R. Galindo
65'
J. Dinenno↳ G. del Prete
66'
J. Aquino← L. Quiñones
66'
D. Lainez← J. Garza
71'
S. Córdova← N. Ibáñez
79'
J. Vigón← D. Reyes
79'
I. Lichnovsky← F. Gorriarán
79'
M. García← J. Molina
85'
J. Ruvalcaba← A. Aldrete
89'
D. Lainez
90+5'
R. Carioca
90'
A. Gignac↳ S. Córdova

Possession

58%Tigres

Shots

19Tigres

Pass accuracy

51%Tigres

Statistics

TigresU.N.A.M.
Overview
58%Possession42%
19Total Shots13
8Corners7
8Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots13
5On Target7
9Off Target3
5Blocked3
15Inside Box8
4Outside Box5
Passing
58%Possession42%
508Total Passes360
416Accurate Passes279
82%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls13
3Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Tigres UANL vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Tigres UANL beat U.N.A.M. - Pumas 4-2 in Liga MX on February 12, 2023.

Goals: N. Ibáñez (12'), G. del Prete (16'), R. Galindo (24' o.g.), A. Gignac (44' pen, 90'), J. Dinenno (65').

Tigres UANL controlled possession (58%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León in San Nicolás de los Garza.