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Tigres UANL vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
3/15/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 12Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Tigres UANL57%
×Draw23%
Santos Laguna20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
1.85
Santos Laguna
1.00

Tigres UANL creates 85% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 142 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
1.83
Santos Laguna
1.09

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.91
Santos Laguna
1.87

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
80%
Tigres UANL or Santos Laguna
77%
Draw or Santos Laguna
43%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
33%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
84%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
55%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
28%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
63%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
26%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
74%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.91 · 161 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.87 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.83 + Santos Laguna defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.85

Santos Laguna attack 1.09 + Tigres UANL defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
57%
level
23%
Santos Laguna scores more
20%

Tigres UANL at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Tigres UANL 3–0 Santos Laguna

Tigres UANL beat Santos Laguna 3-0 in Liga MX on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario in San Nicolás de los Garza.