Tigres UANL 2–0 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

Tigres UANL

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Santos Laguna

L. Quiñones 57'

S. Córdova 26'

8/15/2022

Liga MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Tigres UANL56%

×Draw22%

Santos Laguna22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tigres UANLExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.20

Tigres UANL

2.02

Santos Laguna

1.20

Tigres UANL creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

2.08

creates per match

1.61

0.79

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Tigres UANL

2.08

Santos Laguna

1.61

allows per match

Tigres UANL

0.79

Santos Laguna

1.95

+1.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Tigres UANL+1.12scores more

Santos Laguna-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw

78%

Tigres UANL or Santos Laguna

78%

Draw or Santos Laguna

44%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

33%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

87%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

60%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

33%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

70%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

34%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

72%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.79 · 5 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.95 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 2.08 + Santos Laguna defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.02

Santos Laguna attack 1.61 + Tigres UANL defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tigres UANL scores more

56%

level

22%

Santos Laguna scores more

22%

Tigres UANL at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

S. Córdova

Tigres UANL · M

8.3

Match Events

13'

Rafael Carioca

26'

S. Córdova↳ A. Gignac

29'

Hugo Rodríguez

45+2'

Félix Torres

46'

R. Prieto← E. Aguirre

46'

H. Preciado← E. Orrantía

57'

L. Quiñones↳ N. López

61'

Rafael Carioca

61'

Rafael Carioca

63'

L. Suárez← A. Cervantes

64'

D. Medina← J. González

65'

Nico López

66'

E. Tercero← N. López

72'

C. Domínguez← F. Torres

76'

Fernando Gorriarán

77'

J. Caicedo← A. Gignac

77'

82'

83'

85'

85'

R. Fulgencio← L. Quiñones

90+2'

Ronaldo Prieto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TigresSantos

Overview

52%Possession48%

19Total Shots21

5Corners3

15Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots21

7On Target6

7Off Target5

5Blocked10

10Inside Box14

9Outside Box7

Passing

52%Possession48%

417Total Passes381

350Accurate Passes317

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls16

3Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1