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Tigres UANL vs Santos Laguna — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANLadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
4/4/2019CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · Semi-finalsEstadio Universitario de Nuevo León (San Nicolás de los Garza)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tigres UANL59%
×Draw20%
Santos Laguna21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
2.31
Santos Laguna
1.33

Tigres UANL creates 74% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 4 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
2.63
Santos Laguna
2.00

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.67
Santos Laguna
2.00

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
79%
Tigres UANL or Santos Laguna
80%
Draw or Santos Laguna
41%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
37%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
90%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
67%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
40%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
74%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
38%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
73%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.67 · 24 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 2.63 + Santos Laguna defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.31

Santos Laguna attack 2.00 + Tigres UANL defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
59%
level
20%
Santos Laguna scores more
21%

Tigres UANL at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONCACAF Champions League: Tigres UANL 3–0 Santos Laguna

Tigres UANL beat Santos Laguna 3-0 in CONCACAF Champions League on April 4, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León (San Nicolás de los Garza).