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Tigres UANL vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
A. Gignac 48'
E. Valencia 15'
J. Furch 41'
2/3/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 5Estadio Universitario (UANL)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Tigres UANL56%
×Draw22%
Santos Laguna22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
2.02
Santos Laguna
1.20

Tigres UANL creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
2.08
Santos Laguna
1.61

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.79
Santos Laguna
1.95

finishing

Tigres UANL+1.12scores more
Santos Laguna-0.32scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
78%
Tigres UANL or Santos Laguna
78%
Draw or Santos Laguna
44%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
33%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
87%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
60%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
33%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
70%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
34%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
72%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.79 · 5 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.95 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 2.08 + Santos Laguna defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.02

Santos Laguna attack 1.61 + Tigres UANL defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
56%
level
22%
Santos Laguna scores more
22%

Tigres UANL at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
L. QuiñónesTigres UANLTigres UANL · M
8.5

Match Events

15'
José Abella
15'
E. Valencia↳ F. Meza
31'
Francisco Venegas
41'
J. Furch↳ J. Vázquez
48'
A. Gignac↳ L. Quiñónes
64'
A. Preciado← B. Garnica
67'
Dória
70'
H. Rodríguez← B. Lozano
75'
J. Dueñas← J. Aquino
77'
M. Moreno← J. Correa
79'
E. Vargas← E. Valencia
85'
J. Quiñones← A. Gignac
87'
Francisco Meza

Possession

62%Tigres

Shots

22Tigres

Pass accuracy

52%Tigres

Statistics

TigresSantos
Overview
62%Possession38%
22Total Shots9
12Corners3
15Fouls13
Shots
22Total Shots9
5On Target3
11Off Target5
6Blocked1
17Inside Box5
5Outside Box4
Passing
62%Possession38%
502Total Passes301
419Accurate Passes232
83%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
3Offsides1

Liga MX: Tigres UANL 2–1 Santos Laguna

Tigres UANL beat Santos Laguna 2-1 in Liga MX on February 3, 2019.

Goals: E. Valencia (15'), J. Furch (41'), A. Gignac (48').

Tigres UANL controlled possession (62%) and registered 22 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario (UANL) in Monterrey.