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Tigres UANL vs Leon — Liga MX 2026

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Leon
Leon
9/28/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 10Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Tigres UANL51%
×Draw24%
Leon25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
1.66
Leon
1.09

Tigres UANL creates 52% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 146 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
1.83
Leon
1.27

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.91
Leon
1.48

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
Leon+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Leon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
75%
Tigres UANL or Leon
76%
Draw or Leon
49%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
27%
Leon wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
81%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
49%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
23%
Leon 1+ goals
66%
Leon 2+ goals
30%
Leon 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
67%
Leon (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.91 · 161 matches

Leon away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.48 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.83 + Leon defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.66

Leon attack 1.27 + Tigres UANL defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
51%
level
24%
Leon scores more
25%

Tigres UANL at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Tigres UANL 2–2 Leon

Tigres UANL and Leon drew 2-2 in Liga MX on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario in San Nicolás de los Garza.