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Tigres UANL vs Leon — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANLadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Leon
Leon
4/26/2023CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · Semi-finalsEstadio Universitario de Nuevo León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Tigres UANL67%
×Draw20%
Leon13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
2.06
Leon
0.78

Tigres UANL creates 164% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 8 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
2.63
Leon
0.88

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.67
Leon
1.50

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
Leon+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Leon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
87%
Tigres UANL or Leon
80%
Draw or Leon
33%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
42%
Leon wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
87%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
61%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
34%
Leon 1+ goals
54%
Leon 2+ goals
18%
Leon 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
84%
Leon (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.67 · 24 matches

Leon away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 2.63 + Leon defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

Leon attack 0.88 + Tigres UANL defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
67%
level
20%
Leon scores more
13%

Tigres UANL at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tigres UANL vs Leon

Tigres UANL beat Leon 2-1 in CONCACAF Champions League on April 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León in San Nicolás de los Garza.