Tigres UANL 2–2 Leon: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Tigres UANL

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Leon

L. Quiñónes 90+3'

R. Fulgencio 43'

Á. Mena 33'

E. Hernández 31'

9/12/2021

Liga MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Tigres UANL51%

×Draw25%

Leon25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tigres UANLExpected goals in this matchLeon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.08

Tigres UANL

1.65

Leon

1.08

Tigres UANL creates 53% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 145 away

1.82

creates per match

1.26

0.91

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Tigres UANL

1.82

Leon

1.26

allows per match

Tigres UANL

0.91

Leon

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Leon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Leon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw

75%

Tigres UANL or Leon

75%

Draw or Leon

49%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

27%

Leon wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

81%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

49%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

23%

Leon 1+ goals

66%

Leon 2+ goals

29%

Leon 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

67%

Leon (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.91 · 159 matches

Leon away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.48 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.82 + Leon defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.65

Leon attack 1.26 + Tigres UANL defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tigres UANL scores more

51%

level

25%

Leon scores more

25%

Tigres UANL at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

L. Quiñónes

Tigres UANL · F

8.6

Match Events

31'

E. Hernández↳ W. Tesillo

33'

Á. Mena↳ J. Rodríguez

36'

N. Guzman

36'

D. Reyes

43'

R. Fulgencio↳ L. Quiñónes

46'

G. Pizarro← J. Dueñas

46'

Rafael Carioca← H. Ayala

58'

A. Mena

63'

L. Rodríguez← J. Vigón

64'

W. Tesillo

66'

L. Montes← O. Fernández

66'

E. Gigliotti← V. Dávila

86'

A. Cruz← F. Thauvin

86'

D. Ramírez← A. Mosquera

88'

E. Gigliotti

90+2'

L. Quinones

90'

S. Ormeño← E. Hernández

90+3'

L. Quiñónes↳ G. Pizarro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TigresLeon

Overview

54%Possession46%

9Total Shots13

9Corners2

11Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots13

4On Target6

2Off Target7

3Blocked0

5Inside Box10

4Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

404Total Passes360

337Accurate Passes293

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1