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Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul — Liga MX 2026

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
10/5/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 157+ matches

Tigres UANL47%
×Draw26%
Cruz Azul28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
1.52
Cruz Azul
1.11

Tigres UANL creates 37% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 157 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
1.83
Cruz Azul
1.32

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.91
Cruz Azul
1.22

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Cruz Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
72%
Tigres UANL or Cruz Azul
74%
Draw or Cruz Azul
53%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
23%
Cruz Azul wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
78%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
45%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
20%
Cruz Azul 1+ goals
67%
Cruz Azul 2+ goals
30%
Cruz Azul 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
63%
Cruz Azul (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.91 · 161 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.83 + Cruz Azul defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cruz Azul attack 1.32 + Tigres UANL defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
47%
level
26%
Cruz Azul scores more
28%

Tigres UANL at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Tigres UANL 1–1 Cruz Azul

Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul drew 1-1 in Liga MX on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario in Monterrey.