Tigres UANL 4–0 Club Tijuana: Result & Stats

Tigres UANL

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Club Tijuana

Joaquim 88'

J. Vigón 84' (pen)

J. Brunetta 61', 1'

1/29/2025

Liga MX · Clausura - 4Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tigres UANL64%

×Draw20%

Club Tijuana16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tigres UANLExpected goals in this matchClub Tijuana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.97

Tigres UANL

2.13

Club Tijuana

0.97

Tigres UANL creates 120% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 34 away

2.35

creates per match

1.21

0.74

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Tigres UANL

2.35

Club Tijuana

1.21

allows per match

Tigres UANL

0.74

Club Tijuana

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Club Tijuana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Club Tijuana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw

84%

Tigres UANL or Club Tijuana

80%

Draw or Club Tijuana

36%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

40%

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

88%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

63%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

35%

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

62%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

25%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

80%

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.74 · 23 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 2.35 + Club Tijuana defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.13

Club Tijuana attack 1.21 + Tigres UANL defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Tigres UANL scores more

64%

level

20%

Club Tijuana scores more

16%

Tigres UANL at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Brunetta

Tigres UANL · M

9.3

Match Events

1'

26'

37'

46'

52'

61'

J. Brunetta↳ D. Lainez

64'

F. Contreras← Joe Corona

64'

R. Árciga← I. Tona

66'

Ramiro Árciga

71'

Diego Lainez

71'

O. Herrera← S. Córdova

71'

J. Vigón← N. Ibáñez

77'

Juan VigónGoal cancelled

82'

Javier AquinoPenalty confirmed

84'

J. VigónPenalty

85'

B. Parra← Rafael Carioca

85'

U. Antuna← J. Brunetta

88'

Joaquim

89'

J. Purata← Joaquim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TigresClub

Overview

45%Possession55%

20Total Shots12

7Corners3

16Fouls17

Shots

20Total Shots12

9On Target2

9Off Target6

2Blocked4

13Inside Box5

7Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

352Total Passes438

277Accurate Passes366

79%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls17

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2

Liga MX: Tigres UANL 4–0 Club Tijuana

Tigres UANL beat Club Tijuana 4-0 in Liga MX on January 29, 2025.

Goals: J. Brunetta (1', 61'), J. Vigón (84' pen), Joaquim (88').

Club Tijuana controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario in San Nicolás de los Garza.

Tigres UANL vs Club Tijuana — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga MX: Tigres UANL 4–0 Club Tijuana