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Club Tijuana vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2024

Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
M. El Ghezouani 90+8', 90+5' (pen)
R. Arciga 32'
O. Herrera 56'
7/17/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Club Tijuana38%
×Draw28%
Tigres UANL33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Tijuana
1.21
Tigres UANL
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Club Tijuana
1.44
Tigres UANL
1.07

allows per match

Club Tijuana
1.16
Tigres UANL
0.99

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.44scores more
Tigres UANL+0.33scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw
67%
Club Tijuana or Tigres UANL
72%
Draw or Tigres UANL
62%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+
16%
Tigres UANL wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals
70%
Club Tijuana 2+ goals
34%
Club Tijuana 3+ goals
12%
Tigres UANL 1+ goals
67%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
30%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)
53%
Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 8 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.99 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.44 + Tigres UANL defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tigres UANL attack 1.07 + Club Tijuana defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Club Tijuana scores more
38%
level
28%
Tigres UANL scores more
33%

Club Tijuana at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
Ramiro ÁrcigaClub TijuanaClub Tijuana · M
8.0

Match Events

17'
A. Zapata← I. Rivero
32'
R. Arciga↳ Y. Padilla
45+1'
R. Aguirre
56'
O. Herrera↳ Joaquim
65'
A. Perez← Y. Padilla
65'
M. El Ghezouani← D. Abreu
65'
A. Vega← P. N. Ortiz Orozco
69'
J. Porozo
69'
A. Preciado
69'
F. Gorriaran
69'
V. Lorona
74'
F. Boya← R. Fernandez
74'
F. I. Ordonez Delgado← V. Lorona
83'
D. A. Sanchez Guevara← D. Lainez
83'
J. Vigon← O. Herrera
84'
N. Guzman
90+5'
M. El GhezouaniPenalty
90+5'
J. Vigon
90+8'
M. El Ghezouani

Possession

51%Club

Shots

15Club

Pass accuracy

50%Club

Statistics

ClubTigres
Overview
51%Possession49%
15Total Shots8
2.12Expected Goals (xG)0.59
1Corners4
11Fouls17
Shots
15Total Shots8
7On Target4
6Off Target3
2Blocked1
10Inside Box4
5Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
394Total Passes373
329Accurate Passes308
84%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
0.75Goals Prevented0.75
Discipline
11Fouls17
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
4Offsides0

Club Tijuana 3 – 1 Tigres UANL

Club Tijuana beat Tigres UANL 3-1 in Liga MX on July 17, 2026.

Goals: R. Arciga (32'), O. Herrera (56'), M. El Ghezouani (90+5' pen, 90+8').

Club Tijuana controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Caliente in Tijuana.