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Tigres UANL vs Atlas — Liga MX 2026

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atlas
Atlas
2/9/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 6Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Tigres UANL54%
×Draw24%
Atlas22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
1.70
Atlas
0.99

Tigres UANL creates 72% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 146 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
1.83
Atlas
1.07

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.91
Atlas
1.56

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
Atlas+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Atlas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
78%
Tigres UANL or Atlas
76%
Draw or Atlas
46%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
30%
Atlas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
82%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
51%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
24%
Atlas 1+ goals
63%
Atlas 2+ goals
26%
Atlas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
71%
Atlas (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.91 · 161 matches

Atlas away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.83 + Atlas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.70

Atlas attack 1.07 + Tigres UANL defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
54%
level
24%
Atlas scores more
22%

Tigres UANL at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Tigres UANL 2–1 Atlas

Tigres UANL beat Atlas 2-1 in Liga MX on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario in San Nicolás de los Garza.