Tigres FC 2–2 Real Santander: Result & Stats

Tigres FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Real Santander

E. López 47'

D. Triviño 29'

D. Hernández 77'

Y. Arboleda 42'

9/3/2022

Primera B · Clausura - 10Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Tigres FC48%

×Draw28%

Real Santander24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tigres FCExpected goals in this matchReal Santander

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.86

Tigres FC

1.35

Real Santander

0.86

Tigres FC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 118 away

1.05

creates per match

0.75

0.98

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Tigres FC

1.05

Real Santander

0.75

allows per match

Tigres FC

0.98

Real Santander

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tigres FC+0.00on par

Real Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres FC ↓

Real Santander →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tigres FC or draw

76%

Tigres FC or Real Santander

72%

Draw or Real Santander

52%

Winning margin

Tigres FC wins by 2+

23%

Real Santander wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tigres FC 1+ goals

74%

Tigres FC 2+ goals

39%

Tigres FC 3+ goals

15%

Real Santander 1+ goals

58%

Real Santander 2+ goals

21%

Real Santander 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tigres FC (draw refunded)

67%

Real Santander (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.98 · 132 matches

Real Santander away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.65 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres FC attack 1.05 + Real Santander defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.35

Real Santander attack 0.75 + Tigres FC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tigres FC scores more

48%

level

28%

Real Santander scores more

24%

Tigres FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tigres FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

29'

42'

46'

47'

53'

56'

F. Mendoza← G. Reyes

56'

J. Báez← J. Quintero

66'

70'

M. Gómez← G. Montes

76'

B. Santana← D. Triviño

76'

G. Benjumea← J. Anaya

77'

D. Hernández

82'

P. Rodríguez← J. Angulo

82'

S. Orejuela← Y. Arboleda

84'

88'

Tigres

Real

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Triviño

▼

Zuñiga

Manager: J. Rojas

46'▲E. López←▼J. Zuñiga

70'▲M. Gómez←▼G. Montes

76'▲B. Santana←▼D. Triviño

76'▲G. Benjumea←▼J. Anaya

Tigres FC substitutes

LópezGómezSantanaBenjumeaMosqueraMorenoRuíz

Manager: J. García

24'▲G. Reyes←▼Y. Salas

56'▲F. Mendoza←▼G. Reyes

56'▲J. Báez←▼J. Quintero

82'▲P. Rodríguez←▼J. Angulo

82'▲S. Orejuela←▼Y. Arboleda

Real Santander substitutes

ReyesMendozaBáezRodríguezOrejuelaChacónQuintero

Match Recap: Tigres FC vs Real Santander

Tigres FC and Real Santander drew 2-2 in Primera B on September 3, 2022.

Goals: D. Triviño (29'), Y. Arboleda (42'), E. López (47'), D. Hernández (77').

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..

Tigres FC vs Real Santander — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tigres FC vs Real Santander