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Real Santander vs Tigres FC — Primera B 2018

Real Santander
Real Santander
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tigres FC
Tigres FC
3/21/2026Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 11Estadio Villa Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Real Santander43%
×Draw29%
Tigres FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Santander
1.24
Tigres FC
0.96

Real Santander creates 29% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 141 away

creates per match

Real Santander
1.13
Tigres FC
0.72

allows per match

Real Santander
1.20
Tigres FC
1.35

finishing

Real Santander+0.00on par
Tigres FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Santander ↓

Tigres FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real Santander or draw
71%
Real Santander or Tigres FC
71%
Draw or Tigres FC
57%

Winning margin

Real Santander wins by 2+
19%
Tigres FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Santander 1+ goals
71%
Real Santander 2+ goals
35%
Real Santander 3+ goals
13%
Tigres FC 1+ goals
62%
Tigres FC 2+ goals
25%
Tigres FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Santander (draw refunded)
60%
Tigres FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Santander at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 127 matches

Tigres FC away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.35 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Santander attack 1.13 + Tigres FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Tigres FC attack 0.72 + Real Santander defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Santander scores more
43%
level
29%
Tigres FC scores more
29%

Real Santander at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Real Santander 1–1 Tigres FC

Real Santander and Tigres FC drew 1-1 in Primera B on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Villa Concha in Piedecuesta.