Tigres FC vs Patriotas — Primera B 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 52+ matches
Tigres FC38%
Patriotas31%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tigres FC creates 13% more chances
Season form · 132 home / 52 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under68
- Over32
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tigres FC ↓
Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tigres FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.98 · 132 matches
Patriotas away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.08 · 52 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tigres FC attack 1.05 + Patriotas defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06
Patriotas attack 0.90 + Tigres FC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Tigres FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Tigres FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Internacional Palmira
Real Cartagena
QuindioPatriotas
Real Soacha
Jaguares
Cucuta
Envigado
Bogota FC
Union Magdalena
PopayanTigres FC
Barranquilla
Huila
Orsomarso
Real Santander
Depor FC
Leones FC
Ind. YumboIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tigres FC host Patriotas on Saturday, 13 May 2023 at 21:00. The match is part of the Primera B 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Tigres FC vs Patriotas
Patriotas beat Tigres FC 2-0 in Primera B on May 13, 2023.
Goals: E. Sarria (38'), I. Rivas (48').
The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..