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Tigres FC vs Leones FC — Primera B 2018

Tigres FC
Tigres FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Leones FC
Leones FC
3/3/2025Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 5Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Tigres FC42%
×Draw27%
Leones FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres FC
1.36
Leones FC
1.14

Tigres FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 127 away

creates per match

Tigres FC
1.04
Leones FC
1.29

allows per match

Tigres FC
0.99
Leones FC
1.69

finishing

Tigres FC+0.00on par
Leones FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres FC ↓

Leones FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tigres FC or draw
69%
Tigres FC or Leones FC
73%
Draw or Leones FC
58%

Winning margin

Tigres FC wins by 2+
19%
Leones FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tigres FC 1+ goals
74%
Tigres FC 2+ goals
39%
Tigres FC 3+ goals
16%
Leones FC 1+ goals
68%
Leones FC 2+ goals
32%
Leones FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tigres FC (draw refunded)
57%
Leones FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.99 · 142 matches

Leones FC away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.69 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres FC attack 1.04 + Leones FC defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.36

Leones FC attack 1.29 + Tigres FC defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tigres FC scores more
42%
level
27%
Leones FC scores more
31%

Tigres FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tigres FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tigres FC vs Leones FC

Tigres FC and Leones FC drew 1-1 in Primera B on March 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo.