Tigres FC 1–2 Independiente Medellin

Tigres FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Independiente Medellin

Á. Méndez 32'

B. Castrillón 75'

M. Camargo 49'

5/11/2022

Copa Colombia · Round of 16Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tigres FC33%

×Draw27%

Independiente Medellin39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tigres FCExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.28

Tigres FC

1.15

Independiente Medellin

1.28

Independiente Medellin creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

1.26

creates per match

1.61

0.95

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Tigres FC

1.26

Independiente Medellin

1.61

allows per match

Tigres FC

0.95

Independiente Medellin

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tigres FC+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres FC ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tigres FC or draw

61%

Tigres FC or Independiente Medellin

73%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

67%

Winning margin

Tigres FC wins by 2+

14%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tigres FC 1+ goals

68%

Tigres FC 2+ goals

32%

Tigres FC 3+ goals

11%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

72%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

37%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tigres FC (draw refunded)

46%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres FC at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres FC attack 1.26 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Independiente Medellin attack 1.61 + Tigres FC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tigres FC scores more

33%

level

27%

Independiente Medellin scores more

39%

Independiente Medellin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

18'

22'

32'

33'

49'

M. Camargo

50'

56'

J. Guzmán← T. Salazar

56'

Marcus Vinicius← D. Triviño

57'

D. Cambindo

66'

B. Castrillón← E. López

66'

J. Hernández← M. Camargo

72'

J. Mosquera

75'

B. Castrillón

76'

H. McCormick← B. Palacio

80'

B. Manrique← S. Roa

80'

J. Ibarra← N. Roa

82'

A. Rodríguez← D. Cambindo

82'

S. Hernández← A. Ricaurte

90+4'

Tigres

Independiente

Vásquez

Bueno

▼

Ricaurte

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: J. Rojas

56'▲J. Guzmán←▼T. Salazar

56'▲Marcus Vinicius←▼D. Triviño

76'▲H. McCormick←▼B. Palacio

80'▲B. Manrique←▼S. Roa

80'▲J. Ibarra←▼N. Roa

Tigres FC substitutes

GuzmánViniciusMcCormickManriqueIbarraPáezRuíz

Manager: J. Comesaña

66'▲B. Castrillón←▼E. López

66'▲J. Hernández←▼M. Camargo

82'▲A. Rodríguez←▼D. Cambindo

82'▲S. Hernández←▼A. Ricaurte

Independiente Medellin substitutes

CastrillónHernándezRodríguezHernándezAlfonsoCuestaAsprilla

Match Recap: Tigres FC vs Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin beat Tigres FC 2-1 in Copa Colombia on May 11, 2022.

Goals: Á. Méndez (32'), M. Camargo (49'), B. Castrillón (75').

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..

Tigres FC vs Independiente Medellin — Copa Colombia 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tigres FC vs Independiente Medellin