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Tigres FC vs Barranquilla — Primera B 2018

Tigres FC
Tigres FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Barranquilla
Barranquilla
7/21/2024Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 1Estadio Enrique Olaya Herrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Tigres FC46%
×Draw28%
Barranquilla26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres FC
1.33
Barranquilla
0.91

Tigres FC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 135 away

creates per match

Tigres FC
1.04
Barranquilla
0.82

allows per match

Tigres FC
0.99
Barranquilla
1.61

finishing

Tigres FC+0.00on par
Barranquilla+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres FC ↓

Barranquilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tigres FC or draw
74%
Tigres FC or Barranquilla
72%
Draw or Barranquilla
54%

Winning margin

Tigres FC wins by 2+
22%
Barranquilla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tigres FC 1+ goals
74%
Tigres FC 2+ goals
38%
Tigres FC 3+ goals
15%
Barranquilla 1+ goals
60%
Barranquilla 2+ goals
23%
Barranquilla 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tigres FC (draw refunded)
64%
Barranquilla (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.99 · 142 matches

Barranquilla away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.61 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres FC attack 1.04 + Barranquilla defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Barranquilla attack 0.82 + Tigres FC defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tigres FC scores more
46%
level
28%
Barranquilla scores more
26%

Tigres FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tigres FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tigres FC vs Barranquilla

Tigres FC and Barranquilla drew 1-1 in Primera B on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Olaya Herrera in Bogotá, D.C..