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Tigres FC vs America de Cali — Copa Colombia 2019

Tigres FC
Tigres FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
America de Cali
America de Cali
8/6/2025Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Play-offsEstadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tigres FC43%
×Draw29%
America de Cali28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres FC
1.22
America de Cali
0.94

Tigres FC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tigres FC
1.26
America de Cali
0.94

allows per match

Tigres FC
0.95
America de Cali
1.18

finishing

Tigres FC+0.00on par
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres FC ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tigres FC or draw
72%
Tigres FC or America de Cali
71%
Draw or America de Cali
57%

Winning margin

Tigres FC wins by 2+
19%
America de Cali wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tigres FC 1+ goals
70%
Tigres FC 2+ goals
34%
Tigres FC 3+ goals
12%
America de Cali 1+ goals
61%
America de Cali 2+ goals
24%
America de Cali 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tigres FC (draw refunded)
60%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres FC at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres FC attack 1.26 + America de Cali defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.22

America de Cali attack 0.94 + Tigres FC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tigres FC scores more
43%
level
29%
America de Cali scores more
28%

Tigres FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tigres FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Tigres FC 0–1 America de Cali

America de Cali beat Tigres FC 1-0 in Copa Colombia on August 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo.