Tigre 3–0 Velez Sarsfield: Result & Stats

Tigre

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Velez Sarsfield

1/23/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 1Estadio José Dellagiovanna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Tigre40%

×Draw29%

Velez Sarsfield32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TigreExpected goals in this matchVelez Sarsfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.04

Tigre

1.20

Velez Sarsfield

1.04

Tigre creates 15% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 121 away

1.28

creates per match

1.02

1.07

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Tigre

1.28

Velez Sarsfield

1.02

allows per match

Tigre

1.07

Velez Sarsfield

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tigre+0.00on par

Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigre ↓

Velez Sarsfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tigre or draw

68%

Tigre or Velez Sarsfield

71%

Draw or Velez Sarsfield

60%

Winning margin

Tigre wins by 2+

17%

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tigre 1+ goals

70%

Tigre 2+ goals

34%

Tigre 3+ goals

12%

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals

65%

Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals

28%

Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tigre (draw refunded)

56%

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigre at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 83 matches

Velez Sarsfield away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.11 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigre attack 1.28 + Velez Sarsfield defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Velez Sarsfield attack 1.02 + Tigre defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tigre scores more

40%

level

29%

Velez Sarsfield scores more

32%

Tigre at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tigre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff