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Tigre vs Macara — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Tigre
Tigre
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Macara
Macara
4/16/2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Jose Dellagiovanna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tigre26%
×Draw36%
Macara38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigre
0.65
Macara
0.85

Macara creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tigre
0.86
Macara
1.00

allows per match

Tigre
0.71
Macara
0.43

finishing

Tigre+0.00on par
Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigre ↓

Macara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–119%
0–28%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–14%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Tigre or draw
62%
Tigre or Macara
64%
Draw or Macara
74%

Winning margin

Tigre wins by 2+
7%
Macara wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tigre 1+ goals
48%
Tigre 2+ goals
14%
Tigre 3+ goals
3%
Macara 1+ goals
57%
Macara 2+ goals
21%
Macara 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tigre (draw refunded)
41%
Macara (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigre at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Macara away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigre attack 0.86 + Macara defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.65

Macara attack 1.00 + Tigre defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tigre scores more
26%
level
36%
Macara scores more
38%

Macara at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Tigre 0–1 Macara

Macara beat Tigre 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 16, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Jose Dellagiovanna in Buenos Aires.