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Tigre Res. vs Platense Res. — Reserve League 2022

Tigre Res.
Tigre Res.
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Platense Res.
Platense Res.
3/21/2022Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Tigre Res.45%
×Draw27%
Platense Res.28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigre Res.
1.41
Platense Res.
1.04

Tigre Res. creates 36% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

creates per match

Tigre Res.
1.23
Platense Res.
0.90

allows per match

Tigre Res.
1.18
Platense Res.
1.58

finishing

Tigre Res.+0.00on par
Platense Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigre Res. ↓

Platense Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tigre Res. or draw
72%
Tigre Res. or Platense Res.
73%
Draw or Platense Res.
55%

Winning margin

Tigre Res. wins by 2+
22%
Platense Res. wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tigre Res. 1+ goals
76%
Tigre Res. 2+ goals
41%
Tigre Res. 3+ goals
17%
Platense Res. 1+ goals
65%
Platense Res. 2+ goals
28%
Platense Res. 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tigre Res. (draw refunded)
62%
Platense Res. (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigre Res. at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.18 · 62 matches

Platense Res. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.58 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigre Res. attack 1.23 + Platense Res. defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Platense Res. attack 0.90 + Tigre Res. defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tigre Res. scores more
45%
level
27%
Platense Res. scores more
28%

Tigre Res. at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tigre Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tigre Res. vs Platense Res.

Tigre Res. beat Platense Res. 4-1 in Reserve League on March 21, 2022.