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Tidjikja vs Tevragh-Zeïne — Premier League 2020

Tidjikja
Tidjikja
FT
0 – 0
Tevragh-Zeïne
Tevragh-Zeïne
12/29/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Stade Olympique de Nouakchott

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Tidjikja34%
×Draw30%
Tevragh-Zeïne36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tidjikja
1.02
Tevragh-Zeïne
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 78 away

creates per match

Tidjikja
1.12
Tevragh-Zeïne
1.32

allows per match

Tidjikja
0.80
Tevragh-Zeïne
0.92

finishing

Tidjikja+0.00on par
Tevragh-Zeïne+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tidjikja ↓

Tevragh-Zeïne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tidjikja or draw
64%
Tidjikja or Tevragh-Zeïne
70%
Draw or Tevragh-Zeïne
66%

Winning margin

Tidjikja wins by 2+
13%
Tevragh-Zeïne wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tidjikja 1+ goals
64%
Tidjikja 2+ goals
27%
Tidjikja 3+ goals
8%
Tevragh-Zeïne 1+ goals
65%
Tevragh-Zeïne 2+ goals
29%
Tevragh-Zeïne 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tidjikja (draw refunded)
49%
Tevragh-Zeïne (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tidjikja at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Tevragh-Zeïne away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tidjikja attack 1.12 + Tevragh-Zeïne defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Tevragh-Zeïne attack 1.32 + Tidjikja defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tidjikja scores more
34%
level
30%
Tevragh-Zeïne scores more
36%

Tevragh-Zeïne at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tevragh-Zeïne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tidjikja 0–0 Tevragh-Zeïne

Tidjikja and Tevragh-Zeïne drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Nouakchott in Nouakchott.