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Tidjikja vs JAHE — Premier League 2020

Tidjikja
Tidjikja
FT
2 – 0
JAHE
JAHE
3/20/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tidjikja49%
×Draw28%
JAHE23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tidjikja
1.38
JAHE
0.85

Tidjikja creates 62% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 11 away

creates per match

Tidjikja
1.12
JAHE
0.91

allows per match

Tidjikja
0.80
JAHE
1.64

finishing

Tidjikja+0.00on par
JAHE+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tidjikja ↓

JAHE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tidjikja or draw
77%
Tidjikja or JAHE
72%
Draw or JAHE
51%

Winning margin

Tidjikja wins by 2+
24%
JAHE wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tidjikja 1+ goals
75%
Tidjikja 2+ goals
40%
Tidjikja 3+ goals
16%
JAHE 1+ goals
57%
JAHE 2+ goals
21%
JAHE 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tidjikja (draw refunded)
68%
JAHE (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tidjikja at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

JAHE away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tidjikja attack 1.12 + JAHE defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

JAHE attack 0.91 + Tidjikja defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tidjikja scores more
49%
level
28%
JAHE scores more
23%

Tidjikja at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tidjikja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tidjikja 2 – 0 JAHE

Tidjikja beat JAHE 2-0 in Premier League on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.