Tidaholms GoIF 2–1 Herrestads: Result & Stats

Tidaholms GoIF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Herrestads

8/17/2025

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 17Ulvesborg IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tidaholms GoIF36%

×Draw24%

Herrestads40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tidaholms GoIFExpected goals in this matchHerrestads

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.58

Tidaholms GoIF

1.47

Herrestads

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 59 away

1.23

creates per match

1.54

1.62

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Tidaholms GoIF

1.23

Herrestads

1.54

allows per match

Tidaholms GoIF

1.62

Herrestads

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tidaholms GoIF+0.00on par

Herrestads+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tidaholms GoIF ↓

Herrestads →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tidaholms GoIF or draw

60%

Tidaholms GoIF or Herrestads

76%

Draw or Herrestads

64%

Winning margin

Tidaholms GoIF wins by 2+

17%

Herrestads wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Tidaholms GoIF 1+ goals

77%

Tidaholms GoIF 2+ goals

43%

Tidaholms GoIF 3+ goals

18%

Herrestads 1+ goals

79%

Herrestads 2+ goals

47%

Herrestads 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Tidaholms GoIF (draw refunded)

47%

Herrestads (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tidaholms GoIF at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Herrestads away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tidaholms GoIF attack 1.23 + Herrestads defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.47

Herrestads attack 1.54 + Tidaholms GoIF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tidaholms GoIF scores more

36%

level

24%

Herrestads scores more

40%

Herrestads at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Herrestads will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff