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Tiaret vs Olympique Medea — League #187 2026

Tiaret
Tiaret
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
M. Merazi 69', 59'
A. Aissaoui 53'
3/23/2024League #187League #187 · West - 20Stade Ahmed Kaïd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tiaret72%
×Draw18%
Olympique Medea10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tiaret
2.11
Olympique Medea
0.61

Tiaret creates 246% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 27 away

creates per match

Tiaret
2.33
Olympique Medea
0.89

allows per match

Tiaret
0.33
Olympique Medea
1.89

finishing

Tiaret+0.00on par
Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiaret ↓

Olympique Medea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tiaret or draw
90%
Tiaret or Olympique Medea
82%
Draw or Olympique Medea
28%

Winning margin

Tiaret wins by 2+
47%
Olympique Medea wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Tiaret 1+ goals
88%
Tiaret 2+ goals
62%
Tiaret 3+ goals
35%
Olympique Medea 1+ goals
46%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
13%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Tiaret (draw refunded)
88%
Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiaret at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Olympique Medea away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiaret attack 2.33 + Olympique Medea defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.11

Olympique Medea attack 0.89 + Tiaret defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Tiaret scores more
72%
level
18%
Olympique Medea scores more
10%

Tiaret at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Tiaret will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
A. Aissaoui
59'
M. Merazi
69'
M. Merazi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tiaret vs Olympique Medea

Tiaret beat Olympique Medea 3-0 in League #187 on March 23, 2024.

Goals: A. Aissaoui (53'), M. Merazi (59', 69').

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Kaïd in Tiaret.