Tianjin Teda 1–0 Qingdao Jonoon: Result & Stats

Tianjin Teda

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Qingdao Jonoon

J. Ros 17'

3/29/2025

Super League · Round 3Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Tianjin Teda56%

×Draw22%

Qingdao Jonoon22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tianjin TedaExpected goals in this matchQingdao Jonoon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.10

Tianjin Teda

1.92

Qingdao Jonoon

1.10

Tianjin Teda creates 75% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 30 away

1.64

creates per match

1.02

1.18

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Tianjin Teda

1.64

Qingdao Jonoon

1.02

allows per match

Tianjin Teda

1.18

Qingdao Jonoon

2.19

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Tianjin Teda-0.20scores less

Qingdao Jonoon-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Teda ↓

Qingdao Jonoon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tianjin Teda or draw

78%

Tianjin Teda or Qingdao Jonoon

78%

Draw or Qingdao Jonoon

44%

Winning margin

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+

33%

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals

85%

Tianjin Teda 2+ goals

57%

Tianjin Teda 3+ goals

30%

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

67%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

30%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)

72%

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Teda at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.19 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Teda attack 1.64 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.92

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.02 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tianjin Teda scores more

56%

level

22%

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

22%

Tianjin Teda at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tianjin Teda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Xadas

Tianjin Teda · M

8.3

Match Events

17'

J. Ros↳ A. Quiles

24'

Dun BaGoal cancelled

37'

Feng Boyuan← Liu Junshuai

42'

Yangyang JinCard upgrade

43'

Yangyang Jin

45+3'

Jiahui Huang

45'

Chen Chunxin← Jin Yonghao

46'

Hu Jinghang← E. Saric

46'

Wong Ho-Chun Anson← Wellington Silva

63'

Xie Weijun← Huang Jiahui

75'

Chuangyi Lin

75'

Chuangyi LinCard upgrade

79'

Wang Zhenghao← C. Salvador

84'

Wei Suowei← Song Long

87'

Ruan Yang← Wang Qiuming

87'

Li Yongjia← Ba Dun

87'

Shi Yan← A. Ademi

90+3'

Shi Yan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TianjinQingdao

Overview

68%Possession32%

25Total Shots6

1.46Expected Goals (xG)0.48

10Corners3

14Fouls14

Shots

25Total Shots6

8On Target2

8Off Target4

9Blocked0

13Inside Box6

12Outside Box0

Passing

68%Possession32%

532Total Passes254

451Accurate Passes170

85%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards2

2Offsides5