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Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Huanghai — Super League 2018

Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
12/18/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Relegation Round - 3Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tianjin Teda54%
×Draw24%
Qingdao Huanghai23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tianjin Teda
1.74
Qingdao Huanghai
1.04

Tianjin Teda creates 67% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 22 away

creates per match

Tianjin Teda
1.44
Qingdao Huanghai
0.73

allows per match

Tianjin Teda
1.35
Qingdao Huanghai
2.05

finishing

Tianjin Teda+0.00on par
Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Teda ↓

Qingdao Huanghai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tianjin Teda or draw
77%
Tianjin Teda or Qingdao Huanghai
76%
Draw or Qingdao Huanghai
46%

Winning margin

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+
30%
Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals
82%
Tianjin Teda 2+ goals
52%
Tianjin Teda 3+ goals
25%
Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
65%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
28%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)
70%
Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Teda at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.35 · 121 matches

Qingdao Huanghai away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Teda attack 1.44 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.74

Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.73 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tianjin Teda scores more
54%
level
24%
Qingdao Huanghai scores more
23%

Tianjin Teda at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tianjin Teda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Tianjin Teda 1–2 Qingdao Huanghai

Qingdao Huanghai beat Tianjin Teda 2-1 in Super League on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium in Jiangyin.