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Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Renhe — Super League 2018

Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
9/23/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tianjin Teda52%
×Draw24%
Beijing Renhe24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tianjin Teda
1.71
Beijing Renhe
1.08

Tianjin Teda creates 58% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 30 away

creates per match

Tianjin Teda
1.44
Beijing Renhe
0.80

allows per match

Tianjin Teda
1.35
Beijing Renhe
1.97

finishing

Tianjin Teda+0.00on par
Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Teda ↓

Beijing Renhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tianjin Teda or draw
76%
Tianjin Teda or Beijing Renhe
76%
Draw or Beijing Renhe
48%

Winning margin

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+
28%
Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals
82%
Tianjin Teda 2+ goals
51%
Tianjin Teda 3+ goals
24%
Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
66%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
29%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)
68%
Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Teda at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.35 · 121 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Teda attack 1.44 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.71

Beijing Renhe attack 0.80 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tianjin Teda scores more
52%
level
24%
Beijing Renhe scores more
24%

Tianjin Teda at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tianjin Teda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Renhe

Tianjin Teda and Beijing Renhe drew 2-2 in Super League on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Tianjin.