Tianjin Teda 3–0 Beijing Baxy: Result & Stats

Tianjin Teda

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Beijing Baxy

10/13/2021

FA Cup · 1st RoundDalian Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tianjin Teda60%

×Draw20%

Beijing Baxy20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tianjin TedaExpected goals in this matchBeijing Baxy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.22

Tianjin Teda

2.23

Beijing Baxy

1.22

Tianjin Teda creates 83% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.67

creates per match

1.60

0.83

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Tianjin Teda

2.67

Beijing Baxy

1.60

allows per match

Tianjin Teda

0.83

Beijing Baxy

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tianjin Teda+0.00on par

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Teda ↓

Beijing Baxy →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Tianjin Teda or draw

80%

Tianjin Teda or Beijing Baxy

80%

Draw or Beijing Baxy

40%

Winning margin

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+

38%

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+

Team goals

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals

89%

Tianjin Teda 2+ goals

65%

Tianjin Teda 3+ goals

38%

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals

70%

Beijing Baxy 2+ goals

34%

Beijing Baxy 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)

75%

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Teda at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Teda attack 2.67 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.23

Beijing Baxy attack 1.60 + Tianjin Teda defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tianjin Teda scores more

60%

level

20%

Beijing Baxy scores more

20%

Tianjin Teda at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tianjin Teda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff