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Tianjin Songjiang vs Henan Jianye — Super League 2018

Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
6/16/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tianjin Songjiang41%
×Draw26%
Henan Jianye34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tianjin Songjiang
1.42
Henan Jianye
1.27

Tianjin Songjiang creates 12% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 121 away

creates per match

Tianjin Songjiang
1.32
Henan Jianye
1.09

allows per match

Tianjin Songjiang
1.45
Henan Jianye
1.51

finishing

Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par
Henan Jianye+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Songjiang ↓

Henan Jianye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tianjin Songjiang or draw
66%
Tianjin Songjiang or Henan Jianye
74%
Draw or Henan Jianye
59%

Winning margin

Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
19%
Henan Jianye wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
76%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
41%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
17%
Henan Jianye 1+ goals
72%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
36%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
55%
Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Songjiang at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.51 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.32 + Henan Jianye defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

Henan Jianye attack 1.09 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tianjin Songjiang scores more
41%
level
26%
Henan Jianye scores more
34%

Tianjin Songjiang at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tianjin Songjiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Tianjin Songjiang 1–1 Henan Jianye

Tianjin Songjiang and Henan Jianye drew 1-1 in Super League on June 16, 2019.

The match was played at Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Tianjin.