Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Thy ThistedQ W vs VSK Aarhus W — Kvindeliga 2019

Thy ThistedQ W
Thy ThistedQ W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
VSK Aarhus W
VSK Aarhus W
9/21/2019KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 10Sparekassen Thy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Thy ThistedQ W32%
×Draw23%
VSK Aarhus W45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thy ThistedQ W
1.46
VSK Aarhus W
1.76

VSK Aarhus W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 9 away

creates per match

Thy ThistedQ W
1.26
VSK Aarhus W
1.78

allows per match

Thy ThistedQ W
1.74
VSK Aarhus W
1.67

finishing

Thy ThistedQ W+0.00on par
VSK Aarhus W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thy ThistedQ W ↓

VSK Aarhus W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Thy ThistedQ W or draw
55%
Thy ThistedQ W or VSK Aarhus W
77%
Draw or VSK Aarhus W
68%

Winning margin

Thy ThistedQ W wins by 2+
15%
VSK Aarhus W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Thy ThistedQ W 1+ goals
77%
Thy ThistedQ W 2+ goals
43%
Thy ThistedQ W 3+ goals
18%
VSK Aarhus W 1+ goals
83%
VSK Aarhus W 2+ goals
52%
VSK Aarhus W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Thy ThistedQ W (draw refunded)
42%
VSK Aarhus W (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thy ThistedQ W at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.74 · 57 matches

VSK Aarhus W away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thy ThistedQ W attack 1.26 + VSK Aarhus W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

VSK Aarhus W attack 1.78 + Thy ThistedQ W defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Thy ThistedQ W scores more
32%
level
23%
VSK Aarhus W scores more
45%

VSK Aarhus W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "VSK Aarhus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kvindeliga: Thy ThistedQ W 2–2 VSK Aarhus W

Thy ThistedQ W and VSK Aarhus W drew 2-2 in Kvindeliga on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Sparekassen Thy Arena in Thisted.