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Thy ThistedQ W vs ASA Aarhus W — Kvindeliga 2019

Thy ThistedQ W
Thy ThistedQ W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ASA Aarhus W
ASA Aarhus W
4/25/2026KvindeligaKvindeliga · Relegation - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Thy ThistedQ W18%
×Draw22%
ASA Aarhus W59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thy ThistedQ W
0.93
ASA Aarhus W
1.87

ASA Aarhus W creates 101% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 5 away

creates per match

Thy ThistedQ W
1.26
ASA Aarhus W
2.00

allows per match

Thy ThistedQ W
1.74
ASA Aarhus W
0.60

finishing

Thy ThistedQ W+0.00on par
ASA Aarhus W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thy ThistedQ W ↓

ASA Aarhus W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Thy ThistedQ W or draw
41%
Thy ThistedQ W or ASA Aarhus W
78%
Draw or ASA Aarhus W
82%

Winning margin

Thy ThistedQ W wins by 2+
6%
ASA Aarhus W wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Thy ThistedQ W 1+ goals
61%
Thy ThistedQ W 2+ goals
24%
Thy ThistedQ W 3+ goals
7%
ASA Aarhus W 1+ goals
85%
ASA Aarhus W 2+ goals
56%
ASA Aarhus W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Thy ThistedQ W (draw refunded)
24%
ASA Aarhus W (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thy ThistedQ W at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.74 · 57 matches

ASA Aarhus W away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thy ThistedQ W attack 1.26 + ASA Aarhus W defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.93

ASA Aarhus W attack 2.00 + Thy ThistedQ W defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Thy ThistedQ W scores more
18%
level
22%
ASA Aarhus W scores more
59%

ASA Aarhus W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "ASA Aarhus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kvindeliga: Thy ThistedQ W 0–0 ASA Aarhus W

Thy ThistedQ W and ASA Aarhus W drew 0-0 in Kvindeliga on April 25, 2026.