Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Thunder Bay Chill vs Rochester — USL League Two 2018

Thunder Bay Chill
Thunder Bay Chill
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rochester
Rochester
7/7/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 15Chapples Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Thunder Bay Chill61%
×Draw19%
Rochester20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thunder Bay Chill
2.35
Rochester
1.26

Thunder Bay Chill creates 87% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Thunder Bay Chill
1.87
Rochester
1.22

allows per match

Thunder Bay Chill
1.30
Rochester
2.83

finishing

Thunder Bay Chill+0.00on par
Rochester+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thunder Bay Chill ↓

Rochester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Thunder Bay Chill or draw
80%
Thunder Bay Chill or Rochester
81%
Draw or Rochester
39%

Winning margin

Thunder Bay Chill wins by 2+
39%
Rochester wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Thunder Bay Chill 1+ goals
90%
Thunder Bay Chill 2+ goals
68%
Thunder Bay Chill 3+ goals
41%
Rochester 1+ goals
72%
Rochester 2+ goals
36%
Rochester 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Thunder Bay Chill (draw refunded)
76%
Rochester (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thunder Bay Chill at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Rochester away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thunder Bay Chill attack 1.87 + Rochester defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.35

Rochester attack 1.22 + Thunder Bay Chill defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Thunder Bay Chill scores more
61%
level
19%
Rochester scores more
20%

Thunder Bay Chill at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Thunder Bay Chill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thunder Bay Chill vs Rochester

Thunder Bay Chill beat Rochester 2-0 in USL League Two on July 7, 2024.

The match was played at Chapples Park Stadium in Thunder Bay, Ontario.