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Thunder Bay Chill vs Bavarian — USL League Two 2018

Thunder Bay Chill
Thunder Bay Chill
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bavarian
Bavarian
7/12/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 16Chapples Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Thunder Bay Chill52%
×Draw21%
Bavarian27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thunder Bay Chill
2.09
Bavarian
1.46

Thunder Bay Chill creates 43% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

creates per match

Thunder Bay Chill
1.87
Bavarian
1.62

allows per match

Thunder Bay Chill
1.30
Bavarian
2.31

finishing

Thunder Bay Chill+0.00on par
Bavarian+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thunder Bay Chill ↓

Bavarian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Thunder Bay Chill or draw
73%
Thunder Bay Chill or Bavarian
79%
Draw or Bavarian
48%

Winning margin

Thunder Bay Chill wins by 2+
31%
Bavarian wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Thunder Bay Chill 1+ goals
88%
Thunder Bay Chill 2+ goals
62%
Thunder Bay Chill 3+ goals
34%
Bavarian 1+ goals
77%
Bavarian 2+ goals
43%
Bavarian 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Thunder Bay Chill (draw refunded)
66%
Bavarian (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thunder Bay Chill at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Bavarian away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thunder Bay Chill attack 1.87 + Bavarian defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.09

Bavarian attack 1.62 + Thunder Bay Chill defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Thunder Bay Chill scores more
52%
level
21%
Bavarian scores more
27%

Thunder Bay Chill at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Thunder Bay Chill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thunder Bay Chill vs Bavarian

Thunder Bay Chill beat Bavarian 4-1 in USL League Two on July 12, 2023.

The match was played at Chapples Park Stadium in Thunder Bay, Ontario.